2. Bundesliga · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Bundesliga average is 58%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Energie Cottbus at 39%, the draw at 26% and VfL Bochum at 35%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 1.31.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Energie Cottbus have 6 in 8 this season (2 of 4 at home), VfL Bochum 2 in 8 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Energie Cottbus and 1.31 for VfL Bochum. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energie Cottbus | 8 | 75% | 50% | 75% |
| VfL Bochum | 8 | 25% | 0% | 38% |
Our numbers give this match a 74% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 39% of two or more. The 2. Bundesliga rates are 72% and 39%. After the break: 84% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 84% and 48%). Energie Cottbus's last 50 games had a first-half goal 76% of the time and a second-half goal 88%; VfL Bochum's last 50, 76% and 78%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Energie Cottbus season stats · VfL Bochum season stats · 2. Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.