Premier Division · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premier Division average is 48%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Dundalk at 30%, the draw at 26% and Shamrock Rovers at 44%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 1.55.
The league sets the starting point. Premier Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dundalk have 21 in 34 this season (12 of 17 at home), Shamrock Rovers 16 in 34 (7 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 34 and 34 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 14%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.23 for Dundalk and 1.55 for Shamrock Rovers. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundalk | 34 | 62% | 38% | 76% |
| Shamrock Rovers | 34 | 47% | 29% | 56% |
Our numbers give this match a 74% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The Premier Division rates are 73% and 33%. After the break: 75% for a goal and 49% for two or more (league 72% and 41%). Dundalk's last 50 games had a first-half goal 76% of the time and a second-half goal 86%; Shamrock Rovers's last 50, 76% and 76%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Dundalk season stats · Shamrock Rovers season stats · Premier Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.