First League · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 15:00 UK time
CompactStats rates CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna (First League, Friday, 30 October 2026) 51% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with CSKA 1948 69%, the draw 19% and Spartak Varna 12%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| CSKA 1948 win | 69% | Pick |
| Draw | 19% | |
| Spartak Varna win | 12% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 55% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA 1948 | 12 | 75% | 42% | 67% |
| Spartak Varna | 12 | 33% | 25% | 33% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | 64% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 31% | 28% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 39% | 37% |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | 51% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA 1948 | 66% | 76% | 50 |
| Spartak Varna | 68% | 80% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 69% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: CSKA 1948 season stats · Spartak Varna season stats · First League table and form
League. First League has had over 2.5 goals in 44% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. CSKA 1948 9 of 12 (6 of 7 at home), Spartak Varna 4 of 12 (3 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 55% and 41%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 50% and 45%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 47%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 60% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 47%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.15 (CSKA 1948) v 0.75 (Spartak Varna) give 56%; 30% weight: 50%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 51%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.