Serie B · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 22:30. Our rating makes this 43% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 41%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Criciuma at 73%, the draw at 18% and Ponte Preta at 9%, from expected goals of 2.14 and 0.59.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 41% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Criciuma have 7 in 34 this season (2 of 17 at home), Ponte Preta 17 in 42 (10 of 21 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 29% and 41%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 34 and 42 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 30% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 2.14 for Criciuma and 0.59 for Ponte Preta. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma | 34 | 21% | 9% | 32% |
| Ponte Preta | 42 | 40% | 19% | 38% |
Our numbers give this match a 66% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 26% of two or more. The Serie B rates are 66% and 28%. After the break: 73% for a goal and 34% for two or more (league 74% and 36%). Criciuma's last 50 games had a first-half goal 58% of the time and a second-half goal 72%; Ponte Preta's last 50, 74% and 72%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Criciuma season stats · Ponte Preta season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.