Ekstraklasa · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 17:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin (Ekstraklasa, Friday, 30 October 2026) 55% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with Cracovia Krakow 44%, the draw 25% and Motor Lublin 31%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | – |
| Both teams to score | 61% | Yes |
| Cracovia Krakow win | 44% | Pick |
| Draw | 25% | |
| Motor Lublin win | 31% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 55% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cracovia Krakow | 12 | 58% | 42% | 67% |
| Motor Lublin | 12 | 67% | 50% | 75% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | 71% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 35% | 36% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 50% | 48% |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | 58% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cracovia Krakow | 56% | 76% | 50 |
| Motor Lublin | 76% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Cracovia Krakow season stats · Motor Lublin season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form
League. Ekstraklasa has had over 2.5 goals in 54% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Cracovia Krakow 7 of 12 (3 of 6 at home), Motor Lublin 8 of 12 (4 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 55% and 58%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 52% and 54%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 53%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 75% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 54%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.67 (Cracovia Krakow) v 1.37 (Motor Lublin) give 59%; 30% weight: 55%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.