Primera · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 22:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera average is 52%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Coquimbo Unido at 67%, the draw at 22% and Union La Calera at 11%, from expected goals of 1.83 and 0.57.
The league sets the starting point. Primera has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Coquimbo Unido have 13 in 23 this season (5 of 11 at home), Union La Calera 13 in 22 (7 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 23 and 22 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.83 for Coquimbo Unido and 0.57 for Union La Calera. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coquimbo Unido | 23 | 57% | 39% | 70% |
| Union La Calera | 22 | 59% | 23% | 50% |
Our numbers give this match a 64% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 29% of two or more. The Primera rates are 67% and 31%. After the break: 82% for a goal and 43% for two or more (league 82% and 46%). Coquimbo Unido's last 50 games had a first-half goal 60% of the time and a second-half goal 88%; Union La Calera's last 50, 60% and 78%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Coquimbo Unido season stats · Union La Calera season stats · Primera table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.