Cymru Premier · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Cymru Premier average is 55%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Colwyn Bay at 75%, the draw at 15% and Cambrian & Clydach at 11%, from expected goals of 2.93 and 1.08.
The league sets the starting point. Cymru Premier has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Colwyn Bay have 6 in 13 this season (2 of 6 at home), Cambrian & Clydach 10 in 13 (7 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 63%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 76%, from expected goals of 2.93 for Colwyn Bay and 1.08 for Cambrian & Clydach. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colwyn Bay | 13 | 46% | 31% | 31% |
| Cambrian & Clydach | 13 | 77% | 46% | 54% |
Our numbers give this match a 74% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 38% of two or more. The Cymru Premier rates are 74% and 38%. After the break: 75% for a goal and 49% for two or more (league 77% and 50%). Colwyn Bay's last 50 games had a first-half goal 76% of the time and a second-half goal 54%; Cambrian & Clydach's last 50, 72% and 86%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Colwyn Bay season stats · Cambrian & Clydach season stats · Cymru Premier table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.