Primera Clausura · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 22:30. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Clausura average is 43%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Club Guarani at 48%, the draw at 24% and 2 de Mayo at 28%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 1.27.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Clausura has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Club Guarani have 13 in 37 this season (7 of 19 at home), 2 de Mayo 16 in 37 (11 of 19 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 43%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 37 and 37 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 39% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 36%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.76 for Club Guarani and 1.27 for 2 de Mayo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Guarani | 37 | 35% | 22% | 49% |
| 2 de Mayo | 37 | 43% | 16% | 43% |
Our numbers give this match a 63% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 23% of two or more. The Primera Clausura rates are 66% and 28%. After the break: 80% for a goal and 41% for two or more (league 80% and 43%). Club Guarani's last 50 games had a first-half goal 50% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; 2 de Mayo's last 50, 70% and 82%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Club Guarani season stats · 2 de Mayo season stats · Primera Clausura table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.