A-League · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 09:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The A-League average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Brisbane Roar at 20%, the draw at 25% and Auckland at 55%, from expected goals of 0.9 and 1.66.
The league sets the starting point. A-League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Brisbane Roar have 0 in 0 this season, Auckland 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 0.9 for Brisbane Roar and 1.66 for Auckland. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Roar | 0 | — | — | — |
| Auckland | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Our numbers give this match a 74% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The A-League rates are 72% and 35%. After the break: 80% for a goal and 40% for two or more (league 82% and 47%). Brisbane Roar's last 50 games had a first-half goal 78% of the time and a second-half goal 76%; Auckland's last 50, 76% and 76%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Brisbane Roar season stats · Auckland season stats · A-League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.