Eliteserien · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Eliteserien average is 62%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Bodo/Glimt at 61%, the draw at 21% and Viking at 18%, from expected goals of 2.05 and 1.
The league sets the starting point. Eliteserien has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bodo/Glimt have 17 in 23 this season (9 of 11 at home), Viking 17 in 23 (6 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 68%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 23 and 23 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 68% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 2.05 for Bodo/Glimt and 1 for Viking. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt | 23 | 74% | 43% | 43% |
| Viking | 23 | 74% | 26% | 65% |
Our numbers give this match a 85% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 47% of two or more. The Eliteserien rates are 79% and 43%. After the break: 83% for a goal and 61% for two or more (league 82% and 52%). Bodo/Glimt's last 50 games had a first-half goal 92% of the time and a second-half goal 92%; Viking's last 50, 92% and 80%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Bodo/Glimt season stats · Viking season stats · Eliteserien table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.