2. Liga · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Liga average is 52%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Austria Salzburg at 49%, the draw at 22% and SKU Amstetten at 29%, from expected goals of 1.99 and 1.49.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Austria Salzburg have 6 in 9 this season (4 of 4 at home), SKU Amstetten 4 in 9 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.99 for Austria Salzburg and 1.49 for SKU Amstetten. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Salzburg | 9 | 67% | 44% | 67% |
| SKU Amstetten | 9 | 44% | 33% | 78% |
Our numbers give this match a 72% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The 2. Liga rates are 73% and 39%. After the break: 76% for a goal and 48% for two or more (league 76% and 43%). Austria Salzburg's last 43 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 79%; SKU Amstetten's last 50, 74% and 74%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Austria Salzburg season stats · SKU Amstetten season stats · 2. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.