Pro League · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Al Shabab at 23%, the draw at 22% and Al-Ahli Jeddah at 55%, from expected goals of 1.28 and 2.08.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al Shabab have 6 in 10 this season (4 of 6 at home), Al-Ahli Jeddah 8 in 9 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.28 for Al Shabab and 2.08 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shabab | 10 | 60% | 40% | 60% |
| Al-Ahli Jeddah | 9 | 89% | 78% | 44% |
Our numbers give this match a 74% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 42% of two or more. The Pro League rates are 75% and 40%. After the break: 79% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 79% and 49%). Al Shabab's last 50 games had a first-half goal 74% of the time and a second-half goal 74%; Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 50, 72% and 82%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Al Shabab season stats · Al-Ahli Jeddah season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.