Stars League · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 16:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Al Sadd vs Al Shamal (Stars League, Friday, 30 October 2026) 66% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with Al Sadd 41%, the draw 23% and Al Shamal 36%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 62% | Yes |
| Al Sadd win | 41% | Pick |
| Draw | 23% | |
| Al Shamal win | 36% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 73% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 88% | |
| Goal in both halves | 66% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 73% | 74% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 43% | 40% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 88% | 88% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 61% | 62% |
| Goal in both halves | 66% | 66% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 48% | 2nd 51% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 74% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Al Sadd season stats · Al Shamal season stats · Stars League table and form
League. Stars League has had over 2.5 goals in 65% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Al Sadd 7 of 7 (4 of 4 at home), Al Shamal 5 of 7 (2 of 3 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 73% and 67%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 69% and 62%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 65%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 83% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 66%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.80 (Al Sadd) v 1.66 (Al Shamal) give 67%; 30% weight: 66%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.