Stars League · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 16:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC (Stars League, Friday, 30 October 2026) 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with Al-Gharafa 36%, the draw 27% and Qatar SC 37%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | – |
| Both teams to score | 59% | Yes |
| Al-Gharafa win | 36% | |
| Draw | 27% | |
| Qatar SC win | 37% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 87% | |
| Goal in both halves | 62% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Gharafa | 7 | 71% | 57% | 71% |
| Qatar SC | 7 | 71% | 57% | 57% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | 74% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 40% | 40% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 87% | 88% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 59% | 62% |
| Goal in both halves | 62% | 66% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 49% | 2nd 51% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Gharafa | 72% | 82% | 50 |
| Qatar SC | 64% | 90% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 74% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Al-Gharafa season stats · Qatar SC season stats · Stars League table and form
League. Stars League has had over 2.5 goals in 65% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Al-Gharafa 5 of 7 (3 of 5 at home), Qatar SC 5 of 7 (3 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 67% and 67%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 65% and 60%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 63%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 80% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 64%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.30 (Al-Gharafa) v 1.31 (Qatar SC) give 48%; 30% weight: 59%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.