Cymru Premier · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Cymru Premier average is 55%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Airbus UK at 27%, the draw at 22% and Caernarfon Town at 51%, from expected goals of 1.44 and 2.05.
The league sets the starting point. Cymru Premier has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Airbus UK have 7 in 13 this season (3 of 6 at home), Caernarfon Town 10 in 13 (5 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 63%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.44 for Airbus UK and 2.05 for Caernarfon Town. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airbus UK | 13 | 54% | 31% | 38% |
| Caernarfon Town | 13 | 77% | 38% | 62% |
Our numbers give this match a 77% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 41% of two or more. The Cymru Premier rates are 74% and 38%. After the break: 81% for a goal and 61% for two or more (league 77% and 50%). Airbus UK's last 45 games had a first-half goal 78% of the time and a second-half goal 96%; Caernarfon Town's last 50, 82% and 84%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Airbus UK season stats · Caernarfon Town season stats · Cymru Premier table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.