National League · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The National League average is 58%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | no pick |
The result model puts AFC Fylde at 53%, the draw at 24% and AFC Hornchurch at 23%, from expected goals of 1.81 and 1.11.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AFC Fylde have 9 in 13 this season (3 of 6 at home), AFC Hornchurch 8 in 13 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 62% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.81 for AFC Fylde and 1.11 for AFC Hornchurch. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Fylde | 13 | 69% | 46% | 69% |
| AFC Hornchurch | 13 | 62% | 15% | 31% |
Our numbers give this match a 72% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 37% of two or more. The National League rates are 72% and 36%. After the break: 83% for a goal and 51% for two or more (league 82% and 51%). AFC Fylde's last 50 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 86%; AFC Hornchurch's last 50, 76% and 82%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: AFC Fylde season stats · AFC Hornchurch season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.