Superliga · Thursday, 29 October 2026 · 12:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Tirana vs Dinamo Tirana (Superliga, Thursday, 29 October 2026) 40% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with Tirana 35%, the draw 30% and Dinamo Tirana 34%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| Tirana win | 35% | Pick |
| Draw | 30% | |
| Dinamo Tirana win | 34% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 70% | |
| Goal in both halves | 50% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tirana | 8 | 63% | 50% | 50% |
| Dinamo Tirana | 8 | 50% | 25% | 50% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | 65% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 29% | 26% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 70% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 36% | 37% |
| Goal in both halves | 50% | 46% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tirana | 76% | 78% | 50 |
| Dinamo Tirana | 70% | 66% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 73% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Tirana season stats · Dinamo Tirana season stats · Superliga table and form
League. Superliga has had over 2.5 goals in 38% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Tirana 5 of 8 (2 of 3 at home), Dinamo Tirana 4 of 8 (1 of 3 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 44% and 41%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 36% and 36%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 36%.
Head to head. 10 meetings in 3 years, 60% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 38%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.09 (Tirana) v 1.07 (Dinamo Tirana) give 37%; 30% weight: 37%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 40%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.