Primera Division · Thursday, 29 October 2026 · 20:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima (Primera Division, Thursday, 29 October 2026) 50% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with Sporting Cristal 46%, the draw 28% and Alianza Lima 26%.
| Market | Our chance | Odds | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.90 | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 1.67 | Yes |
| Sporting Cristal win | 46% | 2.35 | Pick |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 | |
| Alianza Lima win | 26% | 2.88 | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | – | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | – | |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | – |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal | 30 | 70% | 47% | 73% |
| Alianza Lima | 30 | 40% | 17% | 53% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 51% | 44% |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal | 70% | 80% | 50 |
| Alianza Lima | 72% | 78% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 70% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Sporting Cristal season stats · Alianza Lima season stats · Primera Division table and form
League. Primera Division has had over 2.5 goals in 52% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Sporting Cristal 21 of 30 (12 of 14 at home), Alianza Lima 12 of 30 (3 of 15 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 62% and 45%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 60% and 47%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 53%.
Head to head. 7 meetings in 3 years, 43% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 53%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.37 (Sporting Cristal) v 0.97 (Alianza Lima) give 41%; 30% weight: 49%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 50%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
| Market | Price | Bookmaker % | Our chance | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 50% | +0 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 55% | -1 |
Bookmaker % has the bookmaker's margin removed, so it compares directly with our chance. Diff is the gap in points: plus means we rate the outcome likelier than the price does. It is not value or a tip: when we disagree, the bookmaker has usually been right. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from one bookmaker (Bet365) and move all the time.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.