Primera Division · Thursday, 29 October 2026 · 00:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Cienciano vs Atletico Grau (Primera Division, Thursday, 29 October 2026) 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with Cienciano 58%, the draw 22% and Atletico Grau 19%.
| Market | Our chance | Odds | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.57 | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 1.80 | Yes |
| Cienciano win | 58% | 1.38 | Pick |
| Draw | 22% | 4.50 | |
| Atletico Grau win | 19% | 7.50 | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | – | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | – | |
| Goal in both halves | 53% | – |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cienciano | 30 | 60% | 37% | 63% |
| Atletico Grau | 30 | 37% | 30% | 40% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 30% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 48% | 44% |
| Goal in both halves | 53% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cienciano | 74% | 82% | 50 |
| Atletico Grau | 60% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 70% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Cienciano season stats · Atletico Grau season stats · Primera Division table and form
League. Primera Division has had over 2.5 goals in 52% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Cienciano 18 of 30 (8 of 15 at home), Atletico Grau 11 of 30 (6 of 15 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 57% and 44%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 56% and 45%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 51%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 20% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 49%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.96 (Cienciano) v 1.03 (Atletico Grau) give 58%; 30% weight: 52%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
| Market | Price | Bookmaker % | Our chance | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 52% | -8 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 48% | +8 |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 51% | 54% | +3 |
Bookmaker % has the bookmaker's margin removed, so it compares directly with our chance. Diff is the gap in points: plus means we rate the outcome likelier than the price does. It is not value or a tip: when we disagree, the bookmaker has usually been right. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from one bookmaker (Bet365) and move all the time.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.