Pro League · Thursday, 29 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Al Riyadh at 11%, the draw at 19% and Al-Qadisiyah FC at 70%, from expected goals of 0.72 and 2.18.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al Riyadh have 4 in 9 this season (1 of 3 at home), Al-Qadisiyah FC 6 in 10 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 53% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 0.72 for Al Riyadh and 2.18 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Riyadh | 9 | 44% | 44% | 33% |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC | 10 | 60% | 50% | 50% |
More: Al Riyadh season stats · Al-Qadisiyah FC season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.