Primera · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 23:30 UK time
CompactStats rates U. Catolica vs A. Italiano (Primera, Wednesday, 28 October 2026) 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with U. Catolica 61%, the draw 20% and A. Italiano 19%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | – |
| Both teams to score | 57% | Yes |
| U. Catolica win | 61% | Pick |
| Draw | 20% | |
| A. Italiano win | 19% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | |
| Goal in both halves | 56% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Catolica | 24 | 75% | 46% | 67% |
| A. Italiano | 24 | 50% | 21% | 46% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | 68% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 35% | 32% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | 82% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 47% | 46% |
| Goal in both halves | 56% | 54% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 47% | 2nd 51% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| U. Catolica | 76% | 80% | 50 |
| A. Italiano | 74% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 74% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: U. Catolica season stats · A. Italiano season stats · Primera table and form
League. Primera has had over 2.5 goals in 52% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. U. Catolica 18 of 24 (9 of 11 at home), A. Italiano 12 of 24 (5 of 11 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 64% and 51%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 57% and 52%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 54%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 60% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 54%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.22 (U. Catolica) v 1.16 (A. Italiano) give 66%; 30% weight: 58%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.