Superliga · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Superliga average is 38%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Skenderbeu Korce at 43%, the draw at 29% and Laci at 28%, from expected goals of 1.29 and 0.98.
The league sets the starting point. Superliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 38% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Skenderbeu Korce have 3 in 7 this season (1 of 3 at home), Laci 3 in 7 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 39%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 29%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.29 for Skenderbeu Korce and 0.98 for Laci. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skenderbeu Korce | 7 | 43% | 14% | 71% |
| Laci | 7 | 43% | 29% | 57% |
More: Skenderbeu Korce season stats · Laci season stats · Superliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.