DFB Pokal · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 69% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The DFB Pokal average is 65%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts SC Paderborn 07 at 38%, the draw at 23% and VfB Stuttgart at 39%, from expected goals of 1.74 and 1.77.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SC Paderborn 07 have 3 in 6 this season (1 of 3 at home), VfB Stuttgart 3 in 6 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 62% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.74 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.77 for VfB Stuttgart. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 | 6 | 50% | 33% | 33% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 50% | 33% | 50% |
More: SC Paderborn 07 season stats · VfB Stuttgart season stats · DFB Pokal fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.