Serie A · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 22:30. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie A average is 48%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Santos at 25%, the draw at 28% and Palmeiras at 47%, from expected goals of 0.94 and 1.4.
The league sets the starting point. Serie A has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Santos have 25 in 40 this season (10 of 19 at home), Palmeiras 20 in 43 (10 of 21 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 0.94 for Santos and 1.4 for Palmeiras. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Santos season stats · Palmeiras season stats · Serie A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.