DFB Pokal · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 71% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The DFB Pokal average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Holstein Kiel at 25%, the draw at 24% and 1899 Hoffenheim at 52%, from expected goals of 1.54 and 1.43.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Holstein Kiel have 3 in 8 this season (2 of 4 at home), 1899 Hoffenheim 6 in 6 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 69%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.54 for Holstein Kiel and 1.43 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 1 division apart, so the rating moves to 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | 8 | 38% | 38% | 50% |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 100% | 67% | 100% |
More: Holstein Kiel season stats · 1899 Hoffenheim season stats · DFB Pokal fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.