National League · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The National League average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Carlisle at 44%, the draw at 23% and Harrogate Town at 33%, from expected goals of 1.81 and 1.55.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Carlisle have 7 in 13 this season (5 of 7 at home), Harrogate Town 10 in 13 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.81 for Carlisle and 1.55 for Harrogate Town. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 13 | 54% | 46% | 77% |
| Harrogate Town | 13 | 77% | 54% | 69% |
More: Carlisle season stats · Harrogate Town season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.