Serie B · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Serie B average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Vicenza Virtus at 22%, the draw at 25% and Modena at 53%, from expected goals of 0.96 and 1.65.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vicenza Virtus have 6 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), Modena 5 in 7 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 0.96 for Vicenza Virtus and 1.65 for Modena. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicenza Virtus | 7 | 86% | 43% | 71% |
| Modena | 7 | 71% | 14% | 71% |
More: Vicenza Virtus season stats · Modena season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.