League One · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 19:45 UK time
CompactStats rates Oxford United vs Stockport County (League One, Tuesday, 27 October 2026) 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with Oxford United 38%, the draw 28% and Stockport County 35%.
| Market | Our chance | Odds | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.65 | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 1.62 | Yes |
| Oxford United win | 38% | 3.40 | Pick |
| Draw | 28% | 3.70 | |
| Stockport County win | 35% | 1.90 | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | – | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | – | |
| Goal in both halves | 57% | – |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford United | 10 | 70% | 30% | 70% |
| Stockport County | 12 | 50% | 42% | 50% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 31% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | 82% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 41% | 44% |
| Goal in both halves | 57% | 57% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford United | 76% | 66% | 50 |
| Stockport County | 66% | 86% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 68% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Oxford United season stats · Stockport County season stats · League One table and form
League. League One has had over 2.5 goals in 51% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Oxford United 7 of 10 (3 of 5 at home), Stockport County 6 of 12 (2 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 57% and 51%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 50% and 54%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 52%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.27 (Oxford United) v 1.2 (Stockport County) give 45%; 30% weight: 50%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 51%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
| Market | Price | Bookmaker % | Our chance | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57% | 51% | -6 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 49% | +6 |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 54% | -4 |
Bookmaker % has the bookmaker's margin removed, so it compares directly with our chance. Diff is the gap in points: plus means we rate the outcome likelier than the price does. It is not value or a tip: when we disagree, the bookmaker has usually been right. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from one bookmaker and move all the time.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.