First League · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 15:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia (First League, Tuesday, 27 October 2026) 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with Cherno More Varna 51%, the draw 25% and Septemvri Sofia 24%.
| Market | Our chance | Odds | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.15 | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 2.00 | Yes |
| Cherno More Varna win | 51% | 1.70 | Pick |
| Draw | 25% | 3.60 | |
| Septemvri Sofia win | 24% | 5.00 | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | – | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | – | |
| Goal in both halves | 53% | – |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 11 | 55% | 45% | 64% |
| Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 64% | 18% | 55% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | 64% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 24% | 28% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 43% | 38% |
| Goal in both halves | 53% | 51% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 64% | 68% | 50 |
| Septemvri Sofia | 68% | 84% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 70% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Cherno More Varna season stats · Septemvri Sofia season stats · First League table and form
League. First League has had over 2.5 goals in 45% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Cherno More Varna 6 of 11 (4 of 5 at home), Septemvri Sofia 7 of 11 (3 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 48% and 51%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 43% and 48%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 46%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 46%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.71 (Cherno More Varna) v 1.09 (Septemvri Sofia) give 53%; 30% weight: 48%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 49%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
| Market | Price | Bookmaker % | Our chance | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 49% | +5 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 51% | -5 |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 46% | 50% | +4 |
Bookmaker % has the bookmaker's margin removed, so it compares directly with our chance. Edge is the gap in points. A positive edge means we rate the outcome likelier than the price does; it is not a tip, and when we disagree the bookmaker has usually been right. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from one bookmaker and move all the time.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.