First League · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 17:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia (First League, Tuesday, 27 October 2026) 45% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with Arda Kardzhali 24%, the draw 28% and Levski Sofia 48%.
| Market | Our chance | Odds | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.10 | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 2.10 | No |
| Arda Kardzhali win | 24% | 5.75 | |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | Pick |
| Levski Sofia win | 48% | 1.62 | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 63% | – | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | – | |
| Goal in both halves | 48% | – |
In the app: live scores, every market including half-time goals, sortable tables and a slip you can share.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 45% | 36% | 55% |
| Levski Sofia | 10 | 60% | 20% | 40% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 63% | 64% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 29% | 28% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 39% | 38% |
| Goal in both halves | 48% | 51% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 66% | 70% | 50 |
| Levski Sofia | 54% | 82% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 70% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Arda Kardzhali season stats · Levski Sofia season stats · First League table and form
League. First League has had over 2.5 goals in 45% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Arda Kardzhali 5 of 11 (2 of 5 at home), Levski Sofia 6 of 10 (3 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 45% and 49%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 41% and 49%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 45%.
Head to head. 8 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 45%.
Goal model. Expected goals 0.89 (Arda Kardzhali) v 1.39 (Levski Sofia) give 40%; 30% weight: 44%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 45%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
| Market | Price | Bookmaker % | Our chance | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 45% | +1 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 55% | -1 |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 47% | +2 |
Bookmaker % has the bookmaker's margin removed, so it compares directly with our chance. Edge is the gap in points. A positive edge means we rate the outcome likelier than the price does; it is not a tip, and when we disagree the bookmaker has usually been right. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from one bookmaker and move all the time.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.