National League · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The National League average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Altrincham at 54%, the draw at 24% and Kidderminster Harriers at 22%, from expected goals of 1.8 and 1.07.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Altrincham have 10 in 13 this season (6 of 6 at home), Kidderminster Harriers 4 in 13 (4 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.8 for Altrincham and 1.07 for Kidderminster Harriers. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham | 13 | 77% | 31% | 69% |
| Kidderminster Harriers | 13 | 31% | 23% | 46% |
More: Altrincham season stats · Kidderminster Harriers season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.