Pro League · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 12:40. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Abha at 39%, the draw at 26% and Al-Faisaly FC at 35%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 1.37.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Abha have 5 in 8 this season (1 of 3 at home), Al-Faisaly FC 6 in 10 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.46 for Abha and 1.37 for Al-Faisaly FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abha | 8 | 63% | 25% | 63% |
| Al-Faisaly FC | 10 | 60% | 60% | 70% |
Our numbers give this match a 71% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 37% of two or more. The Pro League rates, last season and this season combined, are 75% and 40% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 88 games). After the break: 78% for a goal and 48% for two or more (league 79% and 49%). Abha's last 50 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 90%; Al-Faisaly FC's last 47, 68% and 62%. A goal in both halves: 56% (league 60%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 30%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Abha season stats · Al-Faisaly FC season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.