Liga I · Monday, 26 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga I average is 46%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 29%, the draw at 30% and Universitatea Craiova at 41%, from expected goals of 0.96 and 1.18.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 44% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 56% | +7% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 46% | 49% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 5.00, draw 3.90, Universitatea Craiova 1.50.
The league sets the starting point. Liga I has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe have 2 in 12 this season (1 of 5 at home), Universitatea Craiova 6 in 12 (1 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 36% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 0.96 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and 1.18 for Universitatea Craiova. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 12 | 17% | 17% | 33% |
| Universitatea Craiova | 12 | 50% | 50% | 33% |
Our numbers give this match a 66% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 34% of two or more. The Liga I rates, last season and this season combined, are 67% and 34% (this season so far: 65% with a first-half goal, from 97 games). After the break: 74% for a goal and 41% for two or more (league 77% and 44%). Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe's last 50 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 64%; Universitatea Craiova's last 50, 60% and 76%. A goal in both halves: 46% (league 51%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 31%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe season stats · Universitatea Craiova season stats · Liga I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.