Ligat Ha'al · Monday, 26 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligat Ha'al average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Maccabi Haifa at 31%, the draw at 24% and Hapoel Beer Sheva at 44%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 1.7.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 58% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 39% | 42% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 57% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Maccabi Haifa 2.35, draw 3.50, Hapoel Beer Sheva 2.45.
The league sets the starting point. Ligat Ha'al has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Maccabi Haifa have 7 in 7 this season (3 of 3 at home), Hapoel Beer Sheva 4 in 7 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 58%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Maccabi Haifa and 1.7 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Haifa | 7 | 100% | 57% | 86% |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 7 | 57% | 29% | 57% |
Our numbers give this match a 67% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The Ligat Ha'al rates, last season and this season combined, are 67% and 36% (this season so far: 65% with a first-half goal, from 49 games). After the break: 81% for a goal and 57% for two or more (league 79% and 52%). Maccabi Haifa's last 50 games had a first-half goal 72% of the time and a second-half goal 88%; Hapoel Beer Sheva's last 50, 64% and 84%. A goal in both halves: 57% (league 54%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 28%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Maccabi Haifa season stats · Hapoel Beer Sheva season stats · Ligat Ha'al table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.