First League · Monday, 26 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 40% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The First League average is 45%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 36%, the draw at 34% and Slavia Sofia at 30%, from expected goals of 0.96 and 0.84.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 40% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 60% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 45% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2.15, draw 3.10, Slavia Sofia 3.60.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 2 in 11 this season (2 of 5 at home), Slavia Sofia 3 in 11 (1 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 39%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 37% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 27%, from expected goals of 0.96 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 0.84 for Slavia Sofia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 11 | 18% | 0% | 36% |
| Slavia Sofia | 11 | 27% | 0% | 45% |
Our numbers give this match a 66% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 29% of two or more. The First League rates, last season and this season combined, are 64% and 28% (this season so far: 68% with a first-half goal, from 76 games). After the break: 74% for a goal and 31% for two or more (league 75% and 38%). Lokomotiv Plovdiv's last 50 games had a first-half goal 72% of the time and a second-half goal 60%; Slavia Sofia's last 50, 64% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 48% (league 51%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 28%, level 28% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Lokomotiv Plovdiv season stats · Slavia Sofia season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.