HNL · Monday, 26 October 2026 · 17:00 UK time. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The HNL average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Istra 1961 at 26%, the draw at 24% and HNK Hajduk Split at 50%, from expected goals of 1.2 and 1.75.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 53% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 47% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 54% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Istra 1961 4.00, draw 3.50, HNK Hajduk Split 1.70.
The league sets the starting point. HNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Istra 1961 have 7 in 10 this season (4 of 5 at home), HNK Hajduk Split 7 in 10 (4 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 42%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.2 for Istra 1961 and 1.75 for HNK Hajduk Split. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istra 1961 | 10 | 70% | 60% | 60% |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 10 | 70% | 30% | 40% |
Our numbers give this match a 78% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 41% of two or more. The HNL rates, last season and this season combined, are 77% and 39% (this season so far: 76% with a first-half goal, from 49 games). After the break: 76% for a goal and 38% for two or more (league 77% and 41%). Istra 1961's last 50 games had a first-half goal 80% of the time and a second-half goal 70%; HNK Hajduk Split's last 50, 80% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 62% (league 61%). Highest-scoring half: second 40%, first 32%, level 28% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Istra 1961 season stats · HNK Hajduk Split season stats · HNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.