Süper Lig · Monday, 26 October 2026 · 18:30. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Süper Lig average is 54%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Galatasaray at 40%, the draw at 25% and Fenerbahçe at 36%, from expected goals of 1.59 and 1.5.
The league sets the starting point. Süper Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Galatasaray have 6 in 8 this season (3 of 4 at home), Fenerbahçe 6 in 8 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.59 for Galatasaray and 1.5 for Fenerbahçe. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 8 | 75% | 75% | 50% |
| Fenerbahçe | 8 | 75% | 25% | 38% |
More: Galatasaray season stats · Fenerbahçe season stats · Süper Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.