Serie B · Monday, 26 October 2026 · 22:30. Our rating makes this 39% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 41%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts America Mineiro at 34%, the draw at 32% and Cuiaba at 35%, from expected goals of 1 and 1.02.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 41% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. America Mineiro have 18 in 44 this season (9 of 22 at home), Cuiaba 8 in 33 (5 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 41% and 31%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 44 and 33 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 41% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 37%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 33%, from expected goals of 1 for America Mineiro and 1.02 for Cuiaba. Folding in 30% of that view gives 36%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| America Mineiro | 44 | 41% | 9% | 43% |
| Cuiaba | 33 | 24% | 9% | 33% |
More: America Mineiro season stats · Cuiaba season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.