First Division · Monday, 26 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The First Division average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts AEK Larnaca at 23%, the draw at 24% and Omonia Nicosia at 53%, from expected goals of 1.08 and 1.75.
The league sets the starting point. First Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AEK Larnaca have 3 in 6 this season (1 of 3 at home), Omonia Nicosia 3 in 5 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 46% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.08 for AEK Larnaca and 1.75 for Omonia Nicosia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Larnaca | 6 | 50% | 33% | 67% |
| Omonia Nicosia | 5 | 60% | 40% | 40% |
More: AEK Larnaca season stats · Omonia Nicosia season stats · First Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.