Frauen-Bundesliga (W) · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Frauen-Bundesliga (W) average is 67%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Werder Bremen W at 62%, the draw at 23% and SC Freiburg W at 15%, from expected goals of 1.82 and 0.77.
The league sets the starting point. Frauen-Bundesliga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Werder Bremen W have 3 in 6 this season (0 of 3 at home), SC Freiburg W 4 in 7 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 62% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.82 for Werder Bremen W and 0.77 for SC Freiburg W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen W | 6 | 50% | 33% | 67% |
| SC Freiburg W | 7 | 57% | 14% | 43% |
More: Werder Bremen W season stats · SC Freiburg W season stats · Frauen-Bundesliga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.