2. Bundesliga · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 12:30. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Bundesliga average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts VfL Osnabrück at 36%, the draw at 24% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 41%, from expected goals of 1.59 and 1.71.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. VfL Osnabrück have 5 in 8 this season (3 of 4 at home), SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3 in 8 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 1.59 for VfL Osnabrück and 1.71 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Osnabrück | 8 | 63% | 38% | 75% |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 8 | 38% | 25% | 75% |
More: VfL Osnabrück season stats · SpVgg Greuther Fürth season stats · 2. Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.