Ligue 1 · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 16:15. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligue 1 average is 54%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Toulouse at 47%, the draw at 26% and Estac Troyes at 27%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 1.12.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 59% | 54% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 46% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 53% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Toulouse 1.62, draw 4.00, Estac Troyes 5.50.
The league sets the starting point. Ligue 1 has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Toulouse have 5 in 7 this season (1 of 3 at home), Estac Troyes 3 in 7 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.57 for Toulouse and 1.12 for Estac Troyes. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 7 | 71% | 57% | 57% |
| Estac Troyes | 7 | 43% | 29% | 43% |
Our numbers give this match a 69% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 34% of two or more. The Ligue 1 rates are 70% and 34%. After the break: 79% for a goal and 48% for two or more (league 79% and 47%). Toulouse's last 50 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 76%; Estac Troyes's last 50, 68% and 82%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Toulouse season stats · Estac Troyes season stats · Ligue 1 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.