MLS · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The MLS average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Sporting Kansas City at 44%, the draw at 24% and Austin at 32%, from expected goals of 1.74 and 1.47.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sporting Kansas City have 24 in 30 this season (11 of 15 at home), Austin 21 in 30 (13 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 72% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 30 and 30 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 70% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.74 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.47 for Austin. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 80% | 50% | 63% |
| Austin | 30 | 70% | 37% | 70% |
More: Sporting Kansas City season stats · Austin season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.