Bundesliga · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 16:30. Our rating makes this 70% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Bundesliga average is 65%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts SC Freiburg at 31%, the draw at 23% and Bayern München at 47%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 1.94.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SC Freiburg have 5 in 6 this season (3 of 3 at home), Bayern München 5 in 6 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 69%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 65% and 78%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 70%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 70%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.55 for SC Freiburg and 1.94 for Bayern München. Folding in 30% of that view gives 70%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 6 | 83% | 50% | 67% |
| Bayern München | 6 | 83% | 67% | 67% |
More: SC Freiburg season stats · Bayern München season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.