NWSL (W) · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 23:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NWSL (W) average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts San Diego Wave W at 49%, the draw at 24% and Boston Legacy W at 27%, from expected goals of 1.74 and 1.24.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. San Diego Wave W have 12 in 28 this season (5 of 14 at home), Boston Legacy W 17 in 28 (6 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 28 and 28 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 47% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.74 for San Diego Wave W and 1.24 for Boston Legacy W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Wave W | 28 | 43% | 21% | 46% |
| Boston Legacy W | 28 | 61% | 25% | 64% |
More: San Diego Wave W season stats · Boston Legacy W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.