Segunda · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Segunda average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Sabadell at 52%, the draw at 24% and Tenerife at 24%, from expected goals of 1.81 and 1.15.
The league sets the starting point. Segunda has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sabadell have 3 in 10 this season (2 of 4 at home), Tenerife 3 in 9 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 43% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.81 for Sabadell and 1.15 for Tenerife. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Sabadell season stats · Tenerife season stats · Segunda table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.