1. Lig · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Lig average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Keçiörengücü at 55%, the draw at 24% and Bursaspor at 21%, from expected goals of 1.77 and 0.99.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Keçiörengücü have 4 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), Bursaspor 8 in 10 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.77 for Keçiörengücü and 0.99 for Bursaspor. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keçiörengücü | 10 | 40% | 30% | 60% |
| Bursaspor | 10 | 80% | 20% | 60% |
More: Keçiörengücü season stats · Bursaspor season stats · 1. Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.