Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 11:15. Our rating makes this 69% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) average is 66%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Heerenveen W at 56%, the draw at 21% and AZ W at 23%, from expected goals of 2.25 and 1.4.
The league sets the starting point. Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Heerenveen W have 5 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), AZ W 6 in 7 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 70%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 70% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 68%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 2.25 for Heerenveen W and 1.4 for AZ W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen W | 7 | 71% | 57% | 71% |
| AZ W | 7 | 86% | 43% | 57% |
More: Heerenveen W season stats · AZ W season stats · Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.