FA WSL (W) · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The FA WSL (W) average is 55%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Crystal Palace W at 7%, the draw at 13% and Chelsea W at 79%, from expected goals of 0.77 and 2.82.
The league sets the starting point. FA WSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Crystal Palace W have 2 in 6 this season (1 of 3 at home), Chelsea W 3 in 6 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 70%, from expected goals of 0.77 for Crystal Palace W and 2.82 for Chelsea W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace W | 6 | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Chelsea W | 6 | 50% | 33% | 33% |
More: Crystal Palace W season stats · Chelsea W season stats · FA WSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.