USL Championship · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 01:00. Our rating makes this 45% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The USL Championship average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Colorado Springs at 33%, the draw at 30% and FC Tulsa at 36%, from expected goals of 1.05 and 1.1.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Colorado Springs have 14 in 29 this season (8 of 14 at home), FC Tulsa 9 in 29 (6 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 39%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 29 and 29 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.05 for Colorado Springs and 1.1 for FC Tulsa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Springs | 29 | 48% | 34% | 55% |
| FC Tulsa | 29 | 31% | 21% | 45% |
More: Colorado Springs season stats · FC Tulsa season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.